Agroup of leading authors, including Donna Tartt, Stephen King and Malcolm Gladwell, has attempted to intervene in the dispute between publisher Hachette and retailing behemoth Amazon. Observers of the music industry are familiar with this tactic; prominent musicians are persuaded that the interests of music publishers are aligned with their own. The reality is very different.还包括唐娜塔兹(Donna Tartt)、斯蒂芬金(Stephen King)以及马尔科姆格拉德威尔(Malcolm Gladwell)在内的一批著名作家企图干预出版商阿歇特(Hachette)和零售业巨头亚马逊(Amazon)之间的争端。音乐产业的观察者对这套战术很熟知，那些著名的音乐家们坚信自己与音乐出版商的利益一致。然而实情十分有所不同。
Music and print media are among the industries most fundamentally changed by digitisation. When Amazon likens the change to the arrival of the paperback, it makes a grave underestimation; the invention of printing is a better analogy. Costs and barriers to entry in distribution have almost disappeared.音乐和印刷媒体都是被数字化彻底转变的行业。亚马逊把这种转变比作平装本的经常出现，觉得是相当严重高估了数字化的影响；与印刷术的发明者相提并论还更加熟悉些。
分销的成本和转入壁垒完全已荡然无存。Established companies in all industries are inhibited in their response to radical change by vested interests inherent in their existing business models. Music publishers tried to block new technologies, and were marginalised by better-run businesses:各行各业的公司在对此巨变时，都不免受到现有商业模式中的既得利益的桎梏。音乐出版商曾企图制止新技术，结果被苹果(Apple)、沃尔玛(Walmart)和Spotify等运营更佳的企业边缘化。图书出版商最初在对此电子书时，最初拿走了纸质书的糟糕复制品。
当这些书销量不欠佳时，他们便退而确保现状。Apple, Walmart and Spotify. Book publishers responded initially with dismal reproductions on screen of their printed books. When these failed to sell, they retired into protecting the statusquo.转变游戏规则的是硬件制造商，他们生产出有了读者体验可与纸质相媲美的显示屏。
迅速这些显示屏的读者体验将更佳。而亚马逊的仓储能力使其需要挑战出版商的固执镇压。The game changer was the ability of hardware manufacturers to produce displays that provide a reading experience almost as pleasant as the printed page. Soon they will be better. Amazon’s distribution capability enabled it to challenge publishers’ recalcitrance.图书出版商的地位仍然创建在对分销渠道的管理制度掌控之上。
有志向的作者一贯以“公开发表作品”为理想。图书出版发行公司除了要求要出版发行哪本图书，传统上还获取一系列设施服务：对底层文学事业的检验、反对和资助，手稿的编辑，终稿作品的营销和推展。The role of the book publisher has been based on control of access to channels of distribution. The ambition of the aspirant author has always been to “get published”. Along with the decision as to what should be published, the company has traditionally provided a collection of associated services: identification, support and finance of the underlying literary project, editing of the draft manuscript, and marketing and promotion of the finished work.但这些支配着出版业的大集团被一群爱人钱比不上爱书的人经营着。
为了最大化分销渠道管理制度掌控环节的营收，出版商缩减了设施服务。如今的畅销书排行榜上弥漫着以往最畅销作品的效仿之作：足球运动员回忆录、名厨菜谱、吸血鬼小说和以女性为目标群体的情色文学。But the large conglomerates that have come to dominate publishing are run by people who love money more than they love books. These support activities have been cut back in the interest of maximising the revenue, from control of access to distribution. Today’s bestseller lists are filled with imitations of books that have already been successful; footballer’s memoirs, celebrity chefs, vampires and female-oriented erotic literature.这样的出版商不合适新的环境。
我不告诉纸质书在20年后的不存在程度。但电子书的销量不足以解释，阿歇特或企鹅兰登书屋(Penguin Random House)这样的公司已仍然是出版发行图书的决定性因素。企鹅兰登部分股权为培生集团(Pearson)持有人，该集团还享有英国《金融时报》。Such publishers are ill-placed for the new environment. I do not know the extent to which the printed book will remain extant in two decades. But enough ebooks are already being sold to signify that being published by a company such as Hachette or Penguin Random House (part-owned by Pearson, which also owns the Financial Times) is no longer critical.影响一本书成与败的是看法的强弱、基础项目的执行力、编辑的水平以及营销与推展的效果。
What matters to the success or failure of a book is the quality of conception and execution of the underlying project, the competence of the editing, and the effectiveness of marketing and promotion.作者自行出版发行的新书大多通不过上述考验，特别是在是它们往往显著缺少能干的编辑。但这种情况现在某种程度不存在于老牌出版商出品的许多图书。Most new self-published titles fail these tests; in particular, the lack of a competent editor is often obvious. But this is also true of many titles now published by established houses.某些现有的出版商靠着为作者获取设施服务的优势还能兴旺下去。
但大多数出版商将开始走下坡路。聪明且懂行的作家们（往往在代理人的协助下）将需要利用比传统版税模式低得多的销售分为，来出售编辑和营销技能。
音乐界的教训之一是，营收的天平已从发行权改向现场表演和商品化。类似于音乐界在或许上早已再次发生的变化，对作家的大笔预付款项将被针对未来营收东流的证券化取而代之。图书项目有可能取得风投资金，也许不会从大学教科书和从业者手册开始。
Some existing publishers will thrive on the basis of their strengths in author support services. But most will not. Savvy and well-advised authors, often helped by agents, will be able to buy editing and marketing skills with the receipts from a much larger share of the sales proceeds than the traditional royalty model allows. One of the lessons of the new world of music is that the balance of revenues has shifted from publishing rights to live performance and merchandising. The blockbuster advance for authors will be replaced, as has to some degree happened in music, by securitisation of future revenue streams. Venture capital funding of book projects – perhaps starting with university textbooks and practitioner handbooks – is possible.读者不会缅怀传统书店，还有图书馆的舒适度氛围。我们对技术过时的蒸汽机车和烛光晚餐有种浪漫情感。
转变很少是不折不扣的好事。但签订公开信的作者错失了图书业发展最根本性的商业后果：当今的作者置身于他/她理应的地位：负责管理。
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